Note: This is the first in a three-part series previewing different aspects of Penn State’s 2024 season.
I love data.
Moreover, I love the things we can learn from extracting and comparing data.
For example, we are losing more of the rainforest in the Amazon because fewer people are being named “Sarah.” Margarine consumption per capita has gone down causing the divorce rate in the state of Maine to also decline.
All of those things must be linked together. It’s what the data says. Fewer Sarahs, less places for sloths to live. Less Country Crock consumption, happier marriages in 23rd state to join the union. Right?
Wrong. Those are just spurious – but real – correlations that data can have with one another.
In some ways, Penn State football’s offense last season was another example of one of those correlations. Penn State’s offense largely was the reason the Nittany Lions lost the three biggest games last season so therefore the general thinking is it was terrible and will be terrible this year.
And in other ways, well, yes, it does need a refresh this year. But it’s highly unlikely it’s going to get much worse than last season. That’s simply not how this works. Not with this roster. Not with the talent that is still around.
While Penn State’s offense is getting a face lift from Andy Kotelnicki, it might not be in as much disarray as you thought it was.
After all, if it lost two – or three games if you count the Peach Bowl – it also won 10 games last year. In those 10 wins, it also helped Penn State to an average margin of victory of 32.6 points. It ranked 12th in the nation in scoring – and first in the conference. It led the Big Ten in rushing yards per game. The starting quarterback threw just two interceptions all season long.
There is plenty of “good” data to go around, and much of that production by way of names like Allar, Allen, Singleton and Warren returns this year.
For most of last year, Penn State’s offense was more than fine last year.
Except for just 12 points against Ohio State and 15 points against Michigan – a win in either would have put Penn State in the running for a conference championship or even College Football Playoff berth. Yes, Penn State’s offense was fine except in the biggest moments of the year.
So that’s why James Franklin fired Mike Yurcich in the middle of the season – the first time the second-most tenured Big Ten coach has ever fired a coordinator in the middle of the year.
When Penn State needed a big play in those games, it couldn’t be found. When Penn State needed to simplify the game, the call for wide receivers throwing the ball came down. The supportive decision-making disappeared and so too did the spark Penn State needed when it mattered most. With Penn State ranking 123rd in explosive play rate last year, that data point is why Franklin went out and hired Kotelnicki who helped Kansas’ offense to the No. 9 spot when it came to explosive play rate.
Don’t be mistaken. There were times when Penn State’s offense looked good last year. Remember opening night? Drew Allar finds a streaking KeAndre Lambert-Smith deep for a pandemonium-inducing touchdown on the offense’s first drive.
OK, both a good and bad example.
It was a great moment but Lambert-Smith, who went effectively missing in the second half of the season, transferred to Auburn. There were at times other problems with the wide receivers last season. (Quite a few of them in fact.) Dante Cephas went from portal hero to zero – except for the Maryland game. And Penn State didn’t have speedster Harrison Wallace III for much of last year as he battled injury.
In spite of some of that, let me once again remind you of the data, Penn State still found a way to win 10 games by that 32.6 average margin – largely thanks to Allar’s ability to take care of the ball and Tyler Warren’s pass-catching ability.
Coming into this season, there is still a question mark – or rather marks – around the wide receiver core: Can Wallace stay healthy? How much of a difference is Julian Fleming’s return to the Keystone State going to make? Will Liam Clifford be more of a threat overall?
But there shouldn’t be question marks around Allar. While he wasn’t always given the proper tools tactically, he looked steady last year with the game plan and options he did have. There’s seemingly this idea that he wasn’t a quarterback who led his team to 10 wins and yet he threw for 25 touchdowns and rushed for four more. In the face of any pathetic notion that he’s already a bust, he threw just two picks all year and led a game winning drive right after his first. He showed maturity and by all reports is progressing well with Kotelnicki. It’s an illogical notion that the now junior quarterback will take a step back just because he has a new offensive coordinator.
It’s just that coordinator’s job to unlock him – and maybe more importantly the players around him – so that Penn State isn’t down at the bottom of the explosive play rate ranking. So that Penn State can provide you with more memorable, big play moments. So that Penn State can take teams like Ohio State to the ropes and finish the job.
That’s what Franklin – and probably Penn State fans – are searching for from the Minnesota native.
“I think what Andy was doing at Kansas was very similar [to what Penn State does now],” Franklin said this offseason. “The difference, as we’re all very aware of, and trust me I’m aware of, is what his strength is, explosive plays. I think they were sixth in the country in explosive plays but doing it in similar formations and personnel groups that we were in.”
At Kansas, Kotelnicki did some interesting things. (Exhibit A and Exhibit B). With no offense to the electric Jalon Daniels, at Penn State, Kotelnicki will have even more at his disposal to make the most of his offense. There is Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton – two players that might need a bit of a bounce back year despite also showing flashes last season and yes, helping Penn State lead the conference in rushing. Singleton is after all the 2022 Big Ten Freshman of the Year and Allen has been the perfect complement of power to Singleton’s speed.
And while some clamor at the idea of starting him over Allar, proper utilization after a lack of utilization last year of Beau Pribula can provide a different look and edge regardless of the number of quarterbacks on the field at the same time.
“It’s about putting players in a position to be successful,” Kotelnicki said at his hiring press conference. “As long as you, as a teacher and coach, understand what your players’ capabilities are, and more importantly know what their limitations are – as long as you can work around those and have a clear definition in your mind of what those things are, you can put them on the field to be successful in any way. This player doesn’t do this well? OK, let’s not ask him to go out on the field and do that.”
With the tools that are available, there is no need to reinvent the offense – only maximize it.
Penn State’s offense is not going to get worse in 2024. It does need to be better when it matters, because if it can’t, that will be what makes or breaks 2024 – or at least that’s what the data says.
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