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Wrestling With Psychology And Analytics As Penn State Heads To Minnesota

Penn State hits the road this weekend again while my thoughts frustrate me. (Photo via GoPSUSports.com)

I missed out on a small slice of the quintessential college experience. 

I never took a psychology class. 

I feel like every college student is supposed to take at least one psychology class in their four years at an institution of higher learning, but for me, the only thing that came relatively close was a criminology class that I took for about a week and then dropped because it was too early in the morning. 

This is however the internet and I can be an expert in anything these days if I set my mind to it. If I want to act like I know a ton about psychology, I’m going to sit here and prove it. 

OK, not really but I do buy into the logic that if you don’t want someone to do something, you shouldn’t use negative language. For example, you’re supposed to tell a teenage driver “drive the car straight” and not “don’t hit the other cars” because they will, indeed, hit the other cars if you tell them the latter. That type of thinking puts a bad thought in your head. 

And this is where I have to admit to you that the negative thoughts have been rattling around in my head this week. 

As Penn State heads to Minnesota this weekend, thoughts of 1999 and 2019 are circling around my brain like the negative thoughts bad driving instructors give. Yet I’m cautiously optimistic that the proof of logic and data will win out as I once again remind myself that Penn State wins when it is supposed to. 

During last week’s broadcast, CBS flashed a graphic related to James Franklin’s winning percentage against non-AP Top 25 teams. I’ll take it a step further. In 11 seasons, Franklin is 86-15 vs. those type opponents. 

(And yes, I know the record vs. the ones that are ranked but we’re not here to argue about that right now.) 

Franklin’s teams have a winning percentage of .851 in those games they’re supposed to take care of. That’s exceptionally good. In fact, they have not lost to a non-ranked opponent in 1,125 and counting days. It’s been a theme not just of this season but of Franklin’s tenure. 

So why do I believe there’s a chance Penn State could slip up? 

I don’t know. I really do not know.

Franklin had nothing to do with 1999. He was the wide receiver coach at Idaho State then. However, one of my earliest memories – not just of Penn State football but of life – is being upset inside Beaver Stadium after that loss. It left an impact on a lot of people and that probably has something to do with the slight pessimism I tend to find with Penn State football – even if I outwardly don’t show it too often. 

Listen to SSSWS

In 2019, I believed that things were going to be different when the No. 4 team in the country went to the Land of 10,000 Lakes. Then I watched Penn State struggle to get back in that game, lose and – to add insult to injury – have my third favorite Prince song (“1999”) ruined for me as it blared over the speakers of Huntington Bank Stadium.  

All of those other years after that – which was probably the last time Penn State was oh-so-close to the College Football Playoff – have felt different, too. Yet they’ve all had the same outcome. 

This year – like those other years – has felt different, too. This is the first time in some time that Penn State fans, myself included, can see the finish line – or starting line for the gold trophy run –  with clarity since 2019. 

If we look at it analytically, too, there’s data to support the theory that at some point the shoe might drop though. Penn State has not made the playoff in part because it has lost other games it’s not supposed to. Michigan State in 2017 is ringing around in your head right now too. Psychologically, in the mind of a fan, it’s impossible not to let those thoughts creep in. 

However, if we continue with the other theme of the season, the data also says this year has been – mostly – different. Yes, Penn State lost to Ohio State. 

But it also won a game to afford them the ability to be the position the team is presently in when it beat USC. It overcame a multi-hour rain delay to win on the road at West Virginia. It put the post-loss letdown theory to bed against Washington. It even erased (almost all of) the pain of Iowa 2021 with a win over Wisconsin thanks to much more prepared backup quarterback. 

Psychologically – and maybe analytically – those are all things you can point to and say that this year is different. They’re all points that can make you say that this team is different. You search for those as a fan because that’s part of the belief – and the hope – of being a fan. 

However you choose to think about Penn State’s chances on Saturday is up to you – or introspectively me.

But again, I’m no expert in psychology. 

Matchup
at
Penn State (9-1) at Minnesota (6-4)
Time: 3:30 p.m.
TV:
CBS
Announcers: Brad Nessler, Gary Danielson, Jenny Dell
Radio:
Penn State Sports Network
Announcers: Steve Jones, Jack Ham, Brian Tripp

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Darian Somers
Darian Somers is a 2016 graduate of Penn State and co-host of Stuff Somers Says with Steve. You can email Darian at darian@stuffsomerssays.com. Follow Darian on Twitter @StuffSomersSays.

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