How Much James Franklin’s Buyout Might Actually Cost Penn State

This is not a thinkpiece with a clever headline. 

If you are here looking for that, you’re in the wrong place. That’s over here. 

However, I – probably like you – have been thinking a lot about the future of Penn State football since about 7 p.m. ET on Saturday evening. (Maybe even an hour or two earlier than that.) 

In a quest to rationalize some of those other thoughts rattling around in my head, I wanted to think this moment in Penn State football history through from the financial standpoint. 

If Pat Kraft wanted to fire James Franklin, how much would it really cost him or Penn State? And does that give us some clarity about what decision he’s going to make and when? 

We’ve seen the $48 million and $56 million numbers almost as much as we’ve seen Jerry Neuheisel’s golden flow in the past few days. But it feels like there might be more to that. There’d be another salary. There’d be potentially lost revenue. 

All of this comes in the face that every year moving forward, Penn State says goodbye to $20.5 million in revenue as that now goes to student athletes before it can get its hands on it. And of course, there is the $700 million stadium renovation to be paid for, with around $135 million coming from donations either in hand now or eventually.

Money, like many other things, is the biggest factor in the Franklin decision – at least from the outside-the-athletic-department lens. It all would also be a discussion that Kraft is having – even if it’s with him and himself alone right now.  

With that in mind, here is a rough estimate of what the cost might be should Kraft decide to let Franklin go. 

The Franklin Era Costs

For the sake of this exercise, we’re going to assume that Kraft would wait until after the season and it’s clear by not firing him on Sunday, that Franklin will get the rest of the season – potentially regardless of what happens the rest of the way. 

With that in mind, we will drop the $56 million figure down to $48 million. That number comes from the language written in Franklin’s contract and while you can’t see the contract, you can see the terms. The head coach gets $7 million a year plus an additional $1 million per year for life insurance. 

Multiply that by the number of years remaining on his contract, which would be six after the season, and you get $48 million. Franklin, of course, renegotiated his deal in the final years of Sandy Barbour’s tenure, which ironically came because he almost left for a job in Los Angeles, just the one downtown, not the one in Westwood. 

But Franklin wouldn’t have the only buyout. We can safely assume, based on Penn State’s dismal offensive offense in 2025, that Andy Kotelnicki would not be back. According to the Centre Daily Times’ Jon Sauber‘s initial salary reporting, Kotelnicki would be due $5.7 million in the remaining parts of his deal. And this could potentially be higher given that Kotelnicki was a candidate for a few jobs last season.

There’s also a chance that Jim Knowles, the highest-paid coordinator in the country and the man whose defense allowed 42 points to UCLA, would not return either. In theory (and we’re assuming the worst because Penn State losing to the Bruins was a bit of a worst-case scenario), Penn State would have to pay him $6.2 million over the next two seasons. We will add that to the tab as well, with a heavy caveat that Knowles would likely get a deal elsewhere and likely have that place pick up his side of a buyout. 

It’s difficult to know how much the rest of Penn State’s assistants are making. We do know that for the year of 2023-24, Penn State spent about $20.8M on coaching salaries in the football department. 

We also don’t know the length of the contracts for the assistance so we will exclude those numbers – even if that adds a potential $8.5 million or so to the tab once you subtract what Franklin, Kotelnicki and Knowles make.

There is one more buyout we’re including, though. Remember Mike Yurcich? Yeah, he’s an important part of how we got here.  

In 2023-24, Penn State reported that it paid a buyout of $905,480 to someone. We don’t know that it was Yurcich and we don’t know for how much longer it will continue. But this roughly matches the $1.27 million figure on Penn State’s Right To Know paperwork, with an assumption that some give and take happened between the two parties when it was all said and done. 

We don’t know the terms of Yurcich’s deal when it comes to years but we’re adding it to the tab for two years.  Consider it a penance for whatever the Michigan performance was that got him fired – and a way to bulk up any potential hidden costs we might have missed in that overall calculation. 

The Next Era Costs

At some point, you’d also have to hire a new coach, and that’s an unnecessary expense on the books that you didn’t plan for. 

But for how much and for how long? 

Kraft’s style is a bit aggressive, and it’d come as a disappointment not to make a splashy hire. 

Curt Cignetti is getting $8 million per year at Kraft’s alma mater, Indiana. 

Matt Rhule, a close friend of Kraft, a Penn State alum and someone I will save some other takes for at a later date, is getting $9.25 million per year over the course of his deal. 

Dan Lanning, the guy who just beat Franklin two weeks ago, is getting $11 million per year. 

To be somewhat conscious of Penn State’s purse strings, the new head coach will get $9 million a year – and we’re tracking that until Franklin’s buyout runs out in 2031. 

Additionally, we will add salaries of $1.7 million per year over three years while the Kotelnicki deal runs out for the new OC and the same for a defensive coordinator over the next two years while the Knowles buyout is paid.  

The Other Fallout Costs

There are a few other costs to consider that we won’t bake in, like NIL funding for the new players and retaining of players, or potential dips in ticket sales – although that doesn’t seem likely given that Penn Staters are a loyal bunch – and the fallout that comes from that. 

However, there is one thing we can reasonably hedge our bets on, and that’s that Penn State will not be hosting a College Football Playoff game in 2025 or 2026. At best, Penn State would go on the road this season. And of the 12 teams that played in last year’s playoff, only one had a first-year head coach, Indiana. The Hoosiers played at Notre Dame as well. 

Penn State gets the revenue from concessions and parking for that game, and because of Franklin, it’s not getting that now.

In 2023-24, Penn State made $15 million across all sports for parking, concessions and novelties, with $12 million from that specifically via football. Last year’s playoff parking had varying prices starting at $45. Average the cost out to $65 multiplied by about 25,000 cars, meaning $1.6 million in parking revenue and another $200,000 in concessions out the window just like that. 

The Final Cost And Some Final-ish Thoughts

As previously mentioned, there are a host of other costs and assumptions to be made (the lawyers are the real winners here), but the fact of the matter is, firing Franklin would cost a lot more than just what the terms sheet says. 

Especially now, Penn State lives in the bed it made, likely envisioning that things would not go this poorly in 2025 with a $700 million stadium renovation happening in the background. 

The total price it would cost for the buyout, which is an estimation based on the numbers we have available to us? 

$127,860,960. 

That’s an average of $18 million – nearly 10 percent of Penn State’s $202 million in expenses it had in 2023-24. That expense total, in addition to the $18 million, will at least go up by $20.5 million with the House agreement as well. 

Of course, Penn State would also have to find a way to get that $127 million that it’s going to cost to reset the football program. While there are some megadonors at Penn State, Terry Pegula’s $102 million gift for the ice arena that bears his name is still $25 million less than what it would take. That was the singular largest donation in Penn State athletics history. Additionally, much of the money that is coming into Penn State of late seems to be following the alignment that Franklin has been reminding everyone of. The “newer” money seems to lean more favorably toward a future with Franklin than one without. The other two largest donations to Penn State have happened in recent years due to the stadium renovation but were still far shy of Pegula’s donation. 

It’s also not impossible to think that the cost would trickle down to regular fans. Between the Legacy Fund “tax”  for things like parking or tickets, and an increase in Nittany Lion Club donation costs a few years ago, Kraft hasn’t shied away from price increases. Although that may be a particularly tough sell – even for the more affluent fans facing increased costs for the suites and other premium seating coming to the west sideline – in the face of the chaos a firing would bring. 

There are other ways of getting the money — though less direct. Penn State did publicly announce that it generated $164.9 million in donations last season. 

There’s also a $300 million Adidas contract, spanning 10 years, starting next year. And even the semantics of that could be debated as a portion will go straight to the student-athletes. 

Now, Kraft faces arguably the biggest decision of tenure – past, present and likely future. While the stadium renovation will be the temple to the legacy, the decision on Franklin’s future may define it. 

Franklin could make the decision easy for Kraft, based on what happens the rest of this season — in any of the three possible directions. Now, later or on his own accord. Franklin could call it quits — which doesn’t feel totally unlikely given his general demeanor of late — mixed with an opportunity to spend time with his family and let some of the attention on him die.

But with the numbers being what they are, it’s also not impossible to imagine a reality where Kraft punts on 2025 and lets Franklin return for 2026 – even if that’s not what you (or I) necessarily want. 

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