The Promise of Probably 

The word “probably” is doing a lot of work this year. 

Penn State will probably make the College Football Playoff this year. 

Penn State will probably not fire James Franklin if the Nittany Lions miss the College Football Playoff this year. 

Welcome to the most fascinating year for Penn State football under James Franklin. 

Probably.

In the court of public opinion, there is a massive amount of pressure to make the College Football Playoff, win every game the team is supposed to win and of course, beat Ohio State for the first time since 2016. 

In the court of rationality, there is the reality that even if Penn State misses the College Football Playoff in 2024, it’s highly unlikely that someone’s going to pony up to cover that $56 million buy-out, especially when there’s a $700 million stadium renovation to pay for. Moreover, it’s highly unlikely that the athletic director, who has been fiercely passionate about using the football program as a driver of growth for the entire department, is going to let the program take a step back – or rather that specific, maybe endless step back. 

But that’s the problem.

If Penn State does miss the playoff this year, then is it growing? Probably not. If the team makes the playoffs, is the program moving forward? Probably. 

Grappling with the promise of probably this year in the face of reality of another likely 10-2 season is what makes this season so fascinating. 

Ad nauseam, you’ve heard from the media – and at points even the head coach – that no team would have benefited more from an expanded playoff than Penn State. The problem is that those teams are all in the past. We live in the now and in that now, Penn State has three brand new coordinators and quite a few questions at the wide receiver position. 

Also in the now, it’s not impossible to think that Penn State’s defense, which was one of the best of all time last year, could be just as good this year. 

To be fair to this team – and to Franklin – before it even plays a game, Penn State has been relatively dependable over the last nine or so seasons. Even when the ceiling has probably been higher than 10 wins a few times, the ladder seems to only reach that 10-win mark inside the regular season. At most college football programs, 10 wins is probably a successful season.

But even as Franklin said at Big Ten media days, 10 wins probably isn’t good enough for Penn State fans. 

“We are one of the few programs in the country where you can win 10 or 11 games and people are unhappy,” he said.

When question marks have arisen about a Franklin team, they usually don’t crash and burn the way many pessimists who follow this program think they will. 

Entering this season, particularly on offense, Penn State can’t be that much worse than it was last year. It still won 10 games last year and in those wins, it won by an average of 32.6 points. It’s unlikely it will take that big of a step back. Even last year, the No. 1 wide receiver probably played tight end and he’s back. The quarterback who threw just two picks is still slinging it. The running backs – strong in their freshman campaign – are probably due for a bounceback year in their junior campaign, too. All around, it still has athletes that are better than a decent chunk of the players they will line up against. 

But if those other question marks aren’t answered well and when Penn State loses a game this year, patience will be tested. And in some ways, rightfully so. 

Partly because one of those losses will probably come against Ohio State. The other part is because if there’s another loss on this schedule, it will probably be to a team that it shouldn’t have been to.

When a loss does come, everyone will probably jump to conclusions about the year being unsuccessful – even though the year won’t fully be written. They’ll probably call it over even when now there’s a little bit more margin for error. But does that matter? Does that grace window exist? Probably not. At times, this fan base can be more nuclear than Pennsylvania’s own Three Mile Island. Ultimately though, even if the hot seat controlled by those with administrative power isn’t even lukewarm, the one controlled by the judge, jury – or rather the fans — will go up another few notches. In fact, that seat has already been warm for some. 

People are tired of Franklin for reasons that aren’t all entirely fair to him. Some are still lingering on to the Paterno years with some fallacy. Others don’t like him because the grass is always greener – especially for those looking in the direction of Nebraska in more ways than one. Those fans are the ones who will have the warmest. 

Others – those with a bit more rational logic – are fed up with Franklin because of that 0-6 record vs. Ohio State and Michigan over the last three years. They are tired because 2016 was now eight years ago and it might be time for social media accounts to stop showing that play. Those are the ones who probably just bumped the knob on the stove to “one” entering this season.

In their defenses, there are fewer excuses for Franklin to hide behind. Only the scarlet and gray beast of the two-headed monster is on the schedule this year – and to Franklin’s benefit, said game is at home.

But some other pestering ones do lurk, like a mid-season trip to USC, an unknown but plausibly strong Wisconsin team or even one by way of this Saturday’s trip to Morgantown. 

Most of all, in the now, the Achilles heel to Franklin, the four-team playoff, is also deceased. It’s both a blessing and a curse. Yes, no program would have benefited more from an expanded playoff earlier than Penn State. And now he can’t hide from that because the expanded playoff is here. 

But if Franklin can manage three out of four of those games well enough, the offense clicks the way we saw Andy Kotelnicki take Kansas to new heights and the defense remains as steady as it should be, then everything will be fine. There will be no more fascination to watch. Instead, the only thing that will be fascinating is how far this team can go when it gets to those December games. 

The margin of error to miss the playoff is greater but if Penn State can emerge from that bunch and handle business elsewhere, no team will have benefited more from an expanded playoff, regardless of what happens against Ohio State.

It just has to get there first. The track record says Penn State is probably a 10-2 team when 11-1 guarantees a playoff berth in the 12-team field, and playing in the Big Ten, the dreaded 10-2 might maybe, probably get them a spot too. 

But Penn State fans are sick of words like “maybe” “might” and “probably.” 

They want “definitely” and that’s probably what makes this season the most interesting. 

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